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by chimeracoder 3354 days ago
> My wife and I just got back from a trip to Italy. The flight was full on the way there. We went from Chicago to Rome. However on the way back we flew from Venice with a stop over in Madrid back to Chicago. The plane was only 1/3 full at most. I remember commenting to my wife how empty it was.

That's most likely just the normal variation in the flight schedules - they can vary dramatically not just by time of year, but also time of day.

For example, I just took a flight from Dubai to NYC (and this was after Trump's Muslim ban came into effect). The flight was packed, with nearly every seat full. Last year, I took the same flight but a few hours later, and it was nearly empty - almost every person in coach had the entire row to themselves (which, for a 15-hour flight, was great!).

Or put another way, if the flight on the way from Chicago to Rome was full and the flight from Madrid to Chicago was not, that doesn't really tell you much about aggregate tourism from other countries to the US, unless you're also making the assumption that there are literally planes full of people emigrating from the US every day.
1 comments
janesvilleseo 3354 days ago
True. I don't do enough international travel to indicate it one way or another. Just thought it was strange. This is only 1 small data point where many are needed in order to see any trending.
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phil21 3354 days ago
Load factors (both directions) are about as high as they ever have been.

In general terms, you can't really have a direction imbalance - especially due to the reasons you are positing. The vast majority of people flying (either direction) is on a tourist visa. Those people have to return as well as get there, so if a flight is full headed to Europe pretty much the same number of people must return. And vice versa.

Immigration/long-term business stays/etc. are a tiny fraction of the folks on the airplane. I suppose there could be an epidemic of US tourists overstaying their EU visas but I kind of doubt it :)

You'd see a reduction in load factor in both directions if there is a dropoff of EU tourism.

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