[veddox]

I would attribute a lot of that to survivorship bias - we usually only hear about successes. (Nobody likes to talk about failures.) That leaves us with the impression that successes are a lot more common than they really are.

Also, hope and optimism are very deeply entrenched in human psychology. Even when we know the odds are hopelessly stacked against us, we refuse to "stop believing in ourselves".

[veddox]

A similar example comes to mind from Stephen E. Ambrose's book "Band of Brothers". He interviewed WW2 veterans who talked about how every soldier going into combat for the first time believes that he's going to survive. It's only when he actually starts to see his comrades fall that he realizes "I might actually die here". As he is exposed to more and more death, that gives way to a feeling of "I'm going to die here".

We have to see others fail to believe it to be a realistic possibility for ourselves.

[juanignacio]

Love the analogy. Thanks for sharing.