[PeterisP]

Noone is entirely sure exactly when we'll reach level-5 autonomy, however, that doesn't matter for the specter of unemployment - the currently demonstrated level of availability seems clearly enough to put half of truck drivers out of work by all kinds of automation e.g. trucks self-driving on the regulated toll roads during time that drivers have their mandated rest; one driver supervising multiple trucks or driving a column of two-three trucks, etc. This alone is sufficient for both a significant tick in unemployment and as a downward pressure on wages of there low-skill workers that have a job.

The question of "replacing drivers" isn't about when machines will be able to do exactly what drivers do now, it's about when we'll figure out to achieve the same end result with much less labor, likely implementing significant changes to the process.

[abalone]

> trucks self-driving on the regulated toll roads during time that drivers have their mandated rest

How would this be possible at anything less than level 4-5 autonomy? If they can take a nap, the truck's got to be fully autonomous.

[PeterisP]

It doesn't need level 5 autonomy, and level 4 autonomy in managed conditions seems quite reachable. Also, in this situation, it's okay if the car decides that a problem is unsolvable as long as it stops safely - if it encounters weather or road conditions that it can't safely handle, the driver will handle it; if it needs interaction with cargo, police or refueling - the driver will handle it, etc.

Level 5 is so distant because it requires solving many problems that we haven't fully acknowledged yet; but Level 4 is different, major car companies (e.g. I recall a quote from Ford, probably Volvo as well) have stated that they don't ever intend to produce a level 3 autonomous car, that they want to go straight from level 2 driving assistance to level 4 cars since expecting a driver to monitor the situation all the time and be able to quickly take over (as level 3 requires) isn't realistic from a safety perspective, many drivers simply won't/can't do it.

[peteretep]

Level 4 includes autonomy in the "operational design domain (ODD)" of a vehicle. I'd have thought that on a tollway that's being maintained specifically to support some self-driving trucks that the difficulty of Level 4 is a few orders of magnitude easier than cars in a residential district.

[flamedoge]

Maintaining tollway for self-driving is still going to add to "manually helping" cost. The operational domain of a vehicle includes roads of varying conditions that a human driver can navigate with relative ease.

[PeterisP]

The operation domain of general purpose consumer vehicles includes all roads of varying conditions that a human driver can navigate with relative ease, but the operation domain of e.g. an EU long-haul truck company can be easily limited to a set of pre-mapped highways.

Manual handling of problem cases that can be done from a central dispatch center would still require far less people to deliver the same cargo than now.

[hakcermani]

> one driver supervising multiple trucks or driving a column of two-three trucks Could be introduced much earlier than fully autonomous mode.