[jorblumesea]

Is there any doubt the Shadow Brokers are Russian and working for Russian interests? The timing of releases, international events concerning both countries and pointed measures are far too suspicious to be considered circumstantial.

[mirimir]

Sure, but that's what someone would do if they were trying to implicate Russians.

[trendia]

Maybe they knew we'd think it odd for Russians to speak with a Russian accent so they did it anyway to trick us.

"Are you the sort of man who would put the poison in his own goblet? Now a clever man would put the poison into my goblet, because he would know that only a fool would drink the goblet given to him. I am not a fool, so clearly you wouldn't do that. But you must have known that I was not a great fool, so I mustn't drink from the wine in front of me!" [0]

[0] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U_eZmEiyTo0#t=1m20s

[mirimir]

Yeah, pretty much. Except no poison drinking was involved here. Unless it was the NSA that did it. And of course, this was all old stuff, so it wasn't really very poisonous.

But really, really, really. There's just no way to know.

[zzzcpan]

Who else, besides Russia, plays these spy games with the US?

[mirimir]

North Korea, China and Israel come to mind. Also many independents. And the US probably plays with itself.

[TwoNineFive]

Great Princess Bride reference.

However, the moral I derive from this is the fact that the poison was put in both goblets.

Government organizations like the CIA are not just poisoning the other, but themselves and the people they are supposedly protecting as well.

Legacy of Ashes, et-all.

[jorblumesea]

Almost certainly what a Russian disinformation campaign would include. But you cannot easily hide motives and attack patterns. These kind of campaigns scream Russia, no one else in the world operates like them or could operate like them. Almost everyone in the intelligence circles include Snowden agrees they are Russian. Smells like a duck, quacks like a duck...

[mirimir]

Well, if it's so obvious to you, then you could easily copy it. And so, why not someone else?

[jorblumesea]

It's not easily copied, that's my point. The MO of this campaign (and others) isn't easily done, which is why it's easy to narrow down suspects. There are only a few possible intelligence agencies that could do something like this and only Russia has the motive.

[mirimir]

You can't have it both ways. If it's so easy to spot, it's easy to emulate. And how can you rely on motives? What you have is evidence, from which you infer motives. When there's so much avowed certainty with such subjective evidence, one must suspect an agenda.

[jorblumesea]

I'm not sure that's fair to say, you can recognize patterns, spot and attempt to emulate something, but that doesn't mean you actually are doing it correctly. Lots of militaries try to emulate the US military but cannot. Operational expertise, tempo and other factors are really difficult to nail down and something that's developed over time and with practice.

I think what you're saying is fair, but the only nation state actors with the right combination of evidence, agenda and motives would be Russia. Who else?

[Veratyr]

Yes. We're in the middle of an information war between America and Russia. I highly recommend doubting everything that involves either of these countries. I'm yet to find a single source of information that doesn't contain bias one way or the other. Even HN seems to have a "of course it's Russia" bias these days.

[pdkl95]

> America and Russia

Remember that even naming these two countries is a bias unless there is specific evidence. America and Russia are obvious suspects, but other countries (and even non-state actors).

There is very little actual evidence and far too much time spent on useless - and distracting - speculation.

> Even HN seems to have a "of course it's Russia" bias these days.

I suspect a lot of people are still using cold war era standards for how propaganda works. The modern methods[1] are a lot more subtle. A potential example might be this very thread where a lot of people seem to be wasting time speculating about the leak's origins instead of looking at the actual evidence that is available: the software itself.

[1] e.g. Russia's "non-linear warfare" methods that introduce as much confusing/distracting chaos as possible, or the psychological wedges JTRIG (GCHQ) uses to split communities before they grow into larger "problems".