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by tuna-piano
3363 days ago
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I did some quick math on GDP numbers by country, just making the very rough (and I'm sure incorrect) assumption that Uber will take a similar percent of each countries total spending. I originally wanted to argue against you, by saying that Asia has some very large and fast growing non-China/Japan countries... but I'm not sure the data shows that. US+EU is $35T total GDP. The largest non-China/Japan Asian economies, India+Indonesia+South Korea+Taiwan+Thailand+Hong Kong+Phillipines+Malaysia is ~$7T[1]. Is it worth all the risk and effort to add only 20% of your potential business? Maybe, and those countries do have higher GDP growth rates[2]. But given the small market sizes, difference in laws, and substantial local competitors (especially Grab), it doesn't seem like being in Asia should increase Uber's worth by a large multiple, relative to Lyft. That said, if being in Asia is responsible for 20% of Uber's valuation, that is still a gigantic $14B, larger than many fortune 500 companies. [1]-https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nomi... [2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_real_GDP_... |
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Both Go-Jek (Indonesia) and Grab have raised huge capital in the last 5 years or so.
Go-Jek seems to be the leader in Indonesia as they've also expanded their capability to food delivery, document delivery, payment gateway, etc (they're becoming more like WeChat minus the chatting/social network aspect)
I have my doubt that Uber in Indonesian will provide significant return to HQ. Uber currently is in 3rd place after Go-Jek and Grab.