[itchyjunk]

I think i've read one too many articles on the "oh no, the robots will flip our burgers. Let's make burgers that's unflippable by robots so we can keep doing it." Even people who don't mind working, maybe loves working will be okay with automating things and moving on. They will have other things in their hobby list/ bucket list/ garage that they have been meaning to work on.

I understand these articles are still needed/useful for people not yet aware about this issue so it's not a criticism of the article but of myself.

[TheAdamAndChe]

You're assuming that this is a rising tide that will lift all boats. What I'm afraid of is that the world will be split into capital owners who own all the robots, and the perpetually poor, who can't get jobs because they've all been automated and the only jobs remaining are minimum wage "service" jobs. And that's assuming there will be enough service jobs to go around.

We're already seeing this split occur in USA. The middle class is basically gone at this point, and the majority of people are either upper-middle class or lower class. This is not a just or equal society at all right now.

[ryanwaggoner]

The middle class is basically gone at this point, and the majority of people are either upper-middle class or lower class.

This is only true if you have some bizarre definitions that you're using. The decline of the middle class has been a few percentage points. It's certainly not "gone".

More than 50% of households in America make $25-100k. That's solidly middle-class.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Income_in_the_United_States

[TheAdamAndChe]

$25k is really not middle class, especially in cities with higher COL.

[lovich]

25k isnt even enough to pay rent after taxes in quite a few cities where the jobs are. If you take Boston for example and follow the rule of thumb of 30% of your net income for rent, youd need around 80k to afford a 1 bedroom apartment without roommates

[pavlov]

What's wrong with service jobs? If the problem is not the nature of the work but rather the pay, then that seems solvable by various forms of wealth redistribution. Universal basic income can be a good component in that.

[TheAdamAndChe]

They don't pay anything like jobs of the past used to. There used to be a large middle class that could afford things like housing, new vehicles, vacations, and hobbies on a regular basis. Service jobs generally don't provide that quality of life.

[zip1234]

I think you are looking at the past a bit optimistically. First off, many houses in the past were MUCH smaller. I know people of the WWII generation that raised their families in working class Detroit neighborhoods. They were considered middle class but raised a family of 7 in a 900 sq. foot house. Yes they went on vacations, but they drove and didn't go out to eat. They had usually only a single car. My point is that they didn't live as extravagant as you seem to think. By the way, you can still buy one of those houses for about 65k in Detroit today. A 30 year mortgage with 10k down on that is less than $300 a month for a mortgage payment.

[John23832]

I think one of the problems is that even if you're frugal with your resources, you're barely making it. In the suburbs, two parents with a single car working 9-5 (if you're lucky) is barely sustainable with two young kids. It isn't sustainable when those kids get a little older and have to go off and do their own activities in order to (hopefully) grow into well rounded human beings. In the a major city, transportation cost have increased too.

I cook every meal, and I can tell you, food prices are starting to look iffy to me. I can only imagine someone on a fixed/restricted income. Let alone having a spouse or a kid or two.

I also think you over estimate the average person's ability to save, even if you're not buying a bunch of extravagant crap. In the "middle class" there isn't as much spending going on as people think.

Also, sure you may be able to buy that type of home in Detroit for that little (which i argue really isn't that little... especially if you have no savings and shot credit), but if it's in the city proper, you have increased food costs, lack of public transportation, deficient police, fire and ems, high taxes as Detroit tries to recoup loses... etc. If you live in the suburbs (which most people do in Detroit, which eroded their tax base and caused their current problems), you have the issues I highlighted above.

Combine that with little job mobility and lack of a viable path to increase income... the "middle class" is taken for a ride... the poor are screwed.

God forbid you have student loans.

We need to do better as a society.

[zip1234]

I agree that the student loan issue is a big problem. If people tried to get a mortgage, they would be required to back the loan somehow and show income that can pay it back. With student loans, there are no such requirements and people can get any kind of degree and take out insane amounts of debt. How can someone that ends up getting $12/hr pay back a 100k student loan and then be able to afford anything else? Also, the houses I was looking at were in Garden City, MI. Not unsafe, not dilapidated, just small houses. Finally, I disagree with the argument that kids need a lot of activities (such as team sports) that they must be driven to and from in order to be well-rounded. There are many paths to being well-rounded.

[pavlov]

That can be fixed by policy. There's enough wealth to let everyone live decently and have hobbies without having to pretend that a person must deserve it by spending eight hours per day at an assembly line.

[itchyjunk]

No, I see your point. And its valid. But I was getting at something slightly different. I don't think the "tsunami" prophecy will come to be true over night. Speaking in terms of average rate of change would be over valuable rather than instantaneous rate of change. Ofcourse, the average might equal the instantaneous at some point if mean value theorem hold true, but just talking in terms of instant change makes it sound all doom and gloom when it's really not.

Even the Earth might not go out of orbit instantaneously if the Sun were to suddenly disappear.

[contingencies]

As someone automating noodle production, I feel compelled to respond to your automated burger flipping comment.

In about 2009 I went to Europe's largest craft fair, held near Aylesbury just outside of London. There were many people there practicing woodwork with traditional hand tools (some of which they had made themselves), metalwork with traditional hand tools, pottery with hands. It was very quaint. I bought nothing but thought the people and processes were very interesting.

I think that's basically how manually building anything will look in the future - quaint, perhaps a sign of eccentricity and questionable priorities, but respectable in its own right as a pursuit - if you have the luxury of time to follow it up.