[nbouscal]

Have you read any of the estimates? Basically every expert gives a huge confidence interval, as do most of the people actively working on AI risk.

[argonaut]

Saying you are 95% confident AGI will come between 50-100 years (a "huge" confidence interval), is still far too confident.

[nbouscal]

I don't recall seeing 95% confidence intervals that narrow. Even the 90% confidence intervals I see are usually like 5-150 or something. (Also it would be super weird to me if the lower bound of someone's 95%CI was 50.)