[tonystubblebine]

As a military person, I'm curious how you feel about the US's role in curbing nuclear proliferation.

I agree that we seem to be in pointless wars, but I'd mostly forgotten about the dangers of nuclear proliferation until a Pentagon-working friend pointed it out to me.

Essentially the idea is that the US acts as both the carrot and the stick. We will protect countries that don't have nuclear weapons and threaten any that try.

I think that's the justification for having such a large military.

But it's also a justification that's largely not talked about. So I've been wanting to get alternative thoughtful viewpoints to go along with the one my friend has.

[killjoywashere]

It's highly valid: you have to convince the Russian satellites (aka, Europe) and the Chinese satellites (Japan, Korea, Philippines) that you can present China and Russia with a credible threat of ground force. Which is nuts in a way, but that's where we're at. But we've staved off catastrophe for 70 years in large part by maintaining unparalleled economic strength (the world economy is measured in dollars after all). It's a self-reinforcing situation: as long as the Europeans and Asians believe in you, they trade with you, ally both politically and economically with you, and keep Russia and China in check.

Now, Trump is undoing that. The fourth leg of the nuclear triad is ground force. The fifth leg is economic power. He's kicking legs out as fast as he can.

[dforrestwilson1]

So I know a lot of intelligence folks who cover different "threat vectors". I have never met one who doesn't believe that their coverage universe is the most important one to focus on.

Fighting nuclear proliferation is important, but ultimately it is a losing battle. In 100 years will less countries have nuclear weapons or will more? Regimes will aggressively pursue it because they can see how things shook out for Qaddafi and Saddam vs Kim.

I think the reality is that MAD has kind of worked. As scary as it is, nobody (sane) wants to push the button because they understand that these are very different weapons, and it would mean the end of life as we know it. Pressing that button ever means total ostracism. So far anyway..

The other interesting question in my mind is does this lead to a lot of stratified borders/countries?