[hegemonicon]

Careful. "The Black Swan" is a pop non-fiction book, and reading it won't give you an intimate understanding of markets. Taleb has taken his share of criticism (http://www.efalken.com/papers/Taleb2.html) and his ability to capitalize on the deep insights he'd like you to believe he has is somewhat questionable (http://www.businessinsider.com/did-nassim-talebs-universa-ge...)

[ThomPete]

Let me put it like this. If the market where predictable we would live in a very different world.

So the proof is in the pudding. No one predicts markets unless they somehow control them.