[mikeash]

EVs are unpopular because cheap ones aren't very good yet. You have to choose between almost unusably short range, or a very high price. Something like the LEAF is affordable, but only useful as a city car. A Model S is a great car, but extremely expensive.

The cost is coming down. Chevy is now selling the Bolt, which has pretty good range, for under $40,000. Tesla's Model 3 is coming soon. More will follow. The high cost comes from the batteries, which are getting cheaper all the time.

I'm not sure that "unpopular" is quite the right word. A lot of people really like Teslas. Most of them can't afford them. The desire is there, the means is not (yet).

It's smart to invest in what sells right now... until things change and that's no longer what sells. GM is investing in what sells today. Tesla is investing in what might sell in a decade or two. Tesla's approach isn't certain but if they're right then GM is going to relive their experience of the 1970s where they take way too long to react to a changing market.

[hacktothefuture]

100% agree but they have to be careful with the idea that "It's smart to invest in what sells right now... "!

The story is so reminiscent of Kodak. Huge 'titanic' of a ship that saw the writing on the wall, actually released digital cameras but the bulk of their infrastructure, employees and expenditures were in traditional film cameras. Once the industry fully shifted they still couldn't change course and died a slow agonizing death as taking pictures became a commodity that came 'free' with your cellphone.

[rootusrootus]

Aside from market share, it doesn't seem like much of a risk to go with what works now and save the big EV push for later. GM still came out with the Bolt, which is an excellent competitor for the Model 3. Not too pretty, but the numbers are all very good. So they know how to do it, and when the sales are there they can scale up production of whatever they're marking 10 or 20 years from now. I'd bet on GM in a battle with Tesla, to be honest, though Musk has a lot of chutzpah.

[ghaff]

It's a little different though. Kodak was invested in a huge consumables business and neither they (nor really anyone else) figured out a way to translate that sort of pay per use model to the digital world.

GM doesn't get money from gas (though their dealers do get money from maintenance which is hypothetically(?) lower with electric vehicles. Different anyway.)

[jrockway]

Kodak was a chemical company that was expected to start making semiconductors or consumer electronics. It's all "photography" but the film and digital industries are very different.

[paganel]

I've had the exact same discussion with somebody else today on /r/futurology, more exactly I told him that "under $40,000" it's still pretty damn expensive for a small hatchback. My 1.4l European small hatchback costs around 13,000 euros new, you just can't expect people to not take into consideration the huge difference between the 2 prices.

[yawz]

I'm not sure if this year all figures are the same, but when I was car-shopping in November, Colorado state granted up to $6,000 in tax credits for new EVs. Federal tax credit was $7,500. And on top of that, Nissan was adding their own discount for their new Leafs.

So, nobody pays the full price of an EV at the moment. You can currently buy 1-2 year-old, certified Nissan Leafs for less than $13,000.

[rootusrootus]

With the number of reservations Tesla has for the Model 3, we are going to find out rather quickly what effect losing the big tax credits has on electric adoption. Maybe that is hidden somewhat by the leasing -- buying an EV right now is foolish, leasing is a much better choice. Even the Model S is going through the auctions at half MSRP or sometimes less, and less prestigous cars like the 500E are auctioning at 4K or so. Anybody who purchased on outright a few years ago is going to be extremely upside down for a while longer.

[elihu]

> GM is investing in what sells today. Tesla is investing in what might sell in a decade or two.

It seems to me that the Bolt and Model 3 should be pretty similar in terms of cost, range, and price. The main difference is the Tesla brand / visual design and probably more self-driving tech in the Model 3. Am I missing something?

[vvanders]

Superchargers.

I regularly make a ~300mi roundtrip with our Tesla, I wouldn't own one today if that wasn't possible.

[edit]

Before anyone brings up ChaDeMo(I have the adapter), SAE combo neither are nearly as fast(120kW) in real-world use and have nearly as much market penetration.

The super-charger network is also something that's planned and built-out with the intention of being to make the major arterials rather than having a patchwork of various companies providing chargers.

[mikeash]

Non-Tesla fast charging stations also tend to be broken a lot, and are installed in small numbers, often single units. It's tough to plan a trip where you need a charge at a particular location when you could be screwed if a single spot is occupied or out of order. Most Tesla locations are 6 spots or more, and they're much better about fixing them when they break.

[vvanders]

Yup, and the just added real-time status on the nav map so you can see how many slots are available and re-route if needed.

[mikeash]

Have you made use of that feature yet? I've poked at it on the nav system, but haven't had to use any Superchargers since it came out.

[mikeash]

The Bolt can't really make road trips because the fast charging network it can use is pretty bad. (That's in the US. Supposedly Europe is a lot better in this respect.) Even where the facilities exist, the Bolt's charging rate is about half of what Tesla can do.

The self-driving/driver-assistance tech gulf is pretty big. The Bolt is fairly basic, while the Model 3 will have at least Tesla's Autopilot 2 hardware, which they say will be sufficient for full self-driving once the software is done. Even if that doesn't work out, it'll have excellent traffic-aware cruise control and lane keeping at the least.

I'd say the brand is also fairly important. Not (just) because Tesla is "cool," but because Tesla is committed. Supposedly GM is planning for something like 50,000 Bolts per year, so it seems like yet another car where dealers will try to steer you to a nice pickup truck or something instead, and finding someone willing to service it could be tough.

Putting it all together, and it seems like GM is putting their toe in the water, while Tesla is balls-to-the-wall (forgive the mixed metaphor).

[anchpop]

> probably more self-driving tech

I probably shouldn't be sharing this but I know someone who is working on the Bolt and he told me they've been having a lot of trouble integrating self-driving tech that's close to Tesla's

[beamatronic]

How hot is the market for a used Model S? It seems you can get a decent one for under $50,000. Is this generally regarded as a good deal? I know an "early adopter" who has had a Model S for many years, and I've lost count of the number of times it has left him and his family stranded.

[mikeash]

At that price you're probably looking at a pre-Autopilot car, which I'd probably avoid. Autopilot is great, for one thing, but also because Tesla's build quality got substantially better over time. I don't think it's because of Autopilot, but its introduction makes for a decent dividing line between old and new.

I haven't looked too hard at the used market, but it looks like a decent way to get one for less. This web site lists a bunch that Tesla is selling through their CPO program if you want to see what's out there:

https://ev-cpo.com/hunter/

For what it's worth, I have an early 2015 Model S and it's had a few minor problems, but nothing close to leaving me stranded.

[rootusrootus]

I am very interested to see how this plays out. Gas prices drive interest in electrics, and electrics drive down gas prices. Maybe the future of the consumer car market is going to split largely between gas-powered pickups and electric-powered sedans/crossovers.

This of course completely ignores the potential effect of self-driving cars. I'm still skeptical we'll see large scale automated driving for at least 10-20 years.

[mikeash]

I think gas prices are driving EVs less and less. It's still a factor, for sure, but things like performance, noise, maintenance, and convenience are driving it heavily as well. Of all the reasons I love my Model S, fuel savings are pretty far down the list, although I certainly don't mind!

[Robotbeat]

Yeah, that's the thing. If gas ever gets back up to $4/gallon in the US, EVs which are just somewhat competitive at $2/gallon are going to be radically competitive.

However, if EVs become widely used, then the lower demand for gasoline will mean gas prices stay low. So long-term, EVs need to compete with low gas prices anyway, even if prices creep back up in the near-term.

But yeah. Once batteries are cheap enough, then electric vehicles may actually become cheaper than internal combustion engine vehicles /upfront/, in addition to the much lower running costs.

[Digit-Al]

Here's a couple of questions for those out there with more knowledge of the subject than me. Firstly, how long do you think it will be before there is a thriving second hand market in EVs? Secondly, do EVs currently hold their value better than traditional vehicles?

I think you can only say EVs are a success when a used market is thriving. Many people can't afford new after all.

[mikeash]

There's a pretty decent market for used Model Ss out there. It's not huge, since Model Ss of sufficient age don't exist in great numbers, but it's not too bad.

I've been looking at cheaper used EVs for a second car. There are lots of used LEAFs out there, some Smart EDs, and a couple of Focus Electrics, which look really nice if you don't mind the short range, but aren't very popular at all. These cars seem to drop in value a lot for the used market. I saw several that were not all that old going for under $10,000.

Teslas seem to retain their value better. I'd guess it's partly because the car is more desirable, and partly because Tesla treats their batteries a lot better, so they can be expected to last longer. The LEAF in particular was known for a while for losing quite a bit of range in just a few years.

As far as how they'll retain their value in the long term, it's hard to say. EVs should lose less value due to things like drivetrain wear, since you don't have a bazillion moving parts in an engine and transmission to go wrong. But they'll lose more value to battery degradation. Much will hinge on how well the batteries age and how much they cost to replace in 10+ years.

[vkou]

One of the reasons for why there are so many used LEAFs on the market, is that a lot of EV early adopters sold their Leaf to buy a Tesla. If you wanted an EV, and could afford it, the specs on the Model S are much better.

This is not really great news for the low-end EV market, though - if the average person isn't interested in a midly used <$10,000 EV, how well will a $35,000 (With no frills - the average vehicle will probably be closer to $40,000) EV sell for?

Keep in mind that after years of making cars, Tesla is still struggling with quality control, supply chains, and repairs.

If we took a time machine, and traveled back to the early 00s, would you have dropped $40,000 on a vehicle made by Kia?

That's roughly where Tesla is today, in terms of maturity. I'm sure it will get better - but it may take a decade.

[mikeash]

> This is not really great news for the low-end EV market, though - if the average person isn't interested in a midly used <$10,000 EV, how well will a $35,000 (With no frills - the average vehicle will probably be closer to $40,000) EV sell for?

I don't understand this. The <$10,000 EV in question has a range of maybe 80 miles, probably less at this point. The $35,000+ EV will have a 200+ mile range and access to an extensive fast-charging network for trips beyond that.

Personally, I've stopped looking at the <$10,000 EVs in favor of waiting for a Model 3, because even though it's far more expensive, it's also far superior.

Tesla has no trouble selling Model Ss and Xs today even though they start at $68,000 and go up well into the 100s. They have a metaphorical line out the door for the Model 3. Tesla is struggling with quality control and such, and it could come back to bite them down the road, but it's not making it hard for them to find customers now.

[VintageCool]

Used LEAFs are super cheap because they have short range, and new LEAFs have a 50% larger range. The tech keeps getting better and making old electric cars less desirable to the market of buyers looking for an electric car.

[Robotbeat]

Well, I bought my '12 Volt used for under $10,000 with 60,000 miles. At the time I bought (last year), they were usually about $12,000 at a dealer, and trade-in about $8000 for the same car. I got mine from a friend who wanted to trade-in (to get a new Volt... the Gen 2 Volts--starting with 2016--are even better than Gen 1), so we both got a good deal. Fantastic car.

Anyway, there are plenty of used electric cars out there if you're happy with the models that have been out for a few years.