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by fspear
3384 days ago
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Might be a long shot but do you have any advice on how to get a "strong intuitive grasp" of probability, games (I'm assuming you mean game theory?) and asymmetric payoff situations. Any recommended study path?. Thanks in advance. |
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The best way is by spending time playing poker, bridge, etc. Sports betting is also good. Any game where you are making decisions facing asymmetric payoffs under uncertainty.
Trader interviews for students tend to focus on whether the candidate can be rational and self-consistent. "How much would I have to pay you to not wear a seat belt on the ride home?" "You roll a 100,000-sided, and if it's a 6, you die. How much would you pay not to play that game?" Your answers to both questions should be self-consistent.
Asymmetric payoffs: tell me an interval around the number of bus stops in Taipei, where you'd be willing to bet 20:1 your interval contains the true answer. People make the interval way too tight. The interviewer chose this question to ask you. He knows the answer, and since he asked you this question, he probably also knows it's something surprising that people get wrong. 20:1 is a huge asymmetry. You should be afraid of making this bet.
That said I'm not the best person to ask about this, it's not my strong suit.