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by saosebastiao
3400 days ago
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https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/False_consensus_effect Just because you care about AI doesn't mean anything about market size or even potential market size. GPUs are still niche compared to CPUs, GPGPUs even more so, and AI specialization is a fraction of that. I mean you're talking about a market measured in hundreds of millions today, a pittance compared to x86...and even assuming massive growth for a decade or more still couldn't catch up to the current market size for x86. And as the only company in the world that is even legally allowed to compete with Intel on x86, they would be stupid to not try. The fact that they're catching headlines suggests that they actually have a chance of recapturing a portion of that $60B market...something unthinkable 3 years ago, especially for a company with yearly revenues lower than the monthly R&D spend of its competitor. To think that AMDs growth is entirely due to the market misjudging the level of commoditization of GPUs is absurd. If you're that confident of the market being so absurdly off base, some simple bets should put you in the Forbes 400 within a year or two. Get on it. |
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Yes, that's definitely AMD's thought process. The apocryphal IBM quote "There's a world market for perhaps only five computers" is why they're wrong.
My main point is this: AMD needs a new CEO; they had an opportunity that they've completely fumbled so far; this piece is so much fluff. You're free to disagree of course, but I don't think my opinion on this is going to change based on your arguments.
> If you're that confident of the market being so absurdly off base, some simple bets should put you in the Forbes 400 within a year or two. Get on it.
I'd be buying put options if the market couldn't stay irrational longer than I could stay solvent. Unfortunately the quality of their decisions as a company has nothing to do with their stock price right now. They were priced right a year and a half ago.