[Klathmon]

Well if you plan to sell out you don't waste any money on extra product you won't sell.

Overproducing just throws money away, means you need to push back your launch date longer, or build much more manufacturing than you'll ever need again.

[poppysan]

But grossly under-producing infuriates people who won't be able to purchase the product for months due to a silly marketing ploy. I still cannot buy the Nintendo classic in-store, and it came out 4th quarter 2016.

[wernercd]

So... how do YOU plan on correctly predicting how popular or unpopular something is?

Isn't this one of the major pain points for many small companies that put stuff up? Correctly gauging 1) how much it costs to mass produce something and 2) how many they actually will sell?

If you are in charge of Nintendo... and you put something out like the Wii, Nintendo Class, etc... how do you expect to get the amount sold right on the first shot?

In my opinion? It's a damn hard problem... it only takes a little bit of internet power - everyone going ape shit over something inconsequential - and BAM what you expected to sell 1 million units is now out of stock and you have millions of people mad.

Now that millions of people want it... will they still want it in 6 months when you ramp up production or is the fad over?

People make it seem like this is an easy question to answer... where is the millions your willing to put on the line for similar questions...

[aanm1988]

> So... how do YOU plan on correctly predicting how popular or unpopular something is?

I'd pull numbers out of thin air.

Isn't this one of the major pain points for many small companies that put stuff up? Correctly gauging 1) how much it costs to mass produce something and 2) how many they actually will sell?

Sure.

> If you are in charge of Nintendo... and you put something out like the Wii, Nintendo Class, etc... how do you expect to get the amount sold right on the first shot?

by using some of the hundreds of millions in profits to do some fucking research. This isn't a small company.

[fred256]

Agreed, I don't understand why the NES Classic Mini is still pretty much impossible to buy anywhere, and is 2.5-3x MSRP at third-party sellers on Amazon/Ebay. Surely by now Nintendo could've ramped production to match demand?

[wernercd]

How do you determine demand? Something like this could be a passing fad... build millions and bam no one wants it anymore...

[fred256]

I'm assuming 6 months after launch they'd have a decent idea of what the demand is.

[wernercd]

Demand doesn't stay the same... "hot items" over the Christmas season don't necessarily stay the hot item in March. Hot items LAST Christmas won't necessarily be hot NEXT Christmas.

Look at any number of "ZOMG MY KID MUST HAVE THIS!!!" items - from Tickle Me Elmo to Pogs to whatever the flavor'of'the'year is... that everyone had to get last year and now no one wants.

And... if they sell 1 million in December... then make another million for January... whats to say the "Market" is 3 million? or 30M? or 300k? Are the millions that wanted it in December still in the market or has the fad faded?

Companies have lost busted from making too many unsold items...

Ramping up demand doesn't happen over night... and sitting on unsold inventory isn't something companies want to do.