[cplanas]

> In another comment section (Reddit, I believe) there was anecdotal evidence that visitors from Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Poland and Romania regularly outstayed their visas and were notorious for violating a tourist visa, hence the additional checks the US wanted to put them through.

I guess it was anecdotal evidence, because the data shows the contrary:

- Bulgaria: 1.74% - Croatia: 1.08% - Cyprus: 1.35% - Poland: 1.49% - Romania: 2.06%

There are a few countries on the VWP that have higher overstaying ratios (Hungary, Chile, Slovakia). Croatia in particular has an overstaying ratio lower than Austria's and Netherlands'. Source: https://www.dhs.gov/sites/default/files/publications/FY%2015...

The reason they don't get VWP is the visa refusal rate, aka "US embassy in your country does not want to give you visa".

[pzh]

Using the visa refusal rate as an excuse sounds a bit like circular logic: "We're not going to give you online rubber-stamped visas, because we're currently not giving you many visas." I'm not saying that the refusals don't have merit, but since they are discretionary, the refusal rate may never improve. It's just the perception: "Those Eastern-Europeans seem dodgy to me, so we won't allow them because they'll surely overstay." Yet the reality is that they don't overstay so much.

[jamiek88]

Or do they have low levels of overstay because they are strict on visas in the first place?

Its circular indeed.