| Wholly agree with your meta analysis. Here's my take, overgeneralizing: Trump did worse than Romney, even factoring in the small bump from the haters (sexists, racists). And those unwilling to vote for Trump defected to Johnson (4m in 2016 vs 1.5m in 2012) or Stein. Clinton did MUCH worse than Obama. Those unwilling to vote for Clinton stayed home. Look. Democrats have to pitch a perfect game to win. Anything less is a loss. But whaddya gonna do? Everyone I know thought Clinton had Florida. But didn't. We can kibitz over white work class in WI MI PN, or the addicts in WV KY that went Trump. What I want to know, learn is what magic sauce Obama had that Clinton didn't which roused infrequent voters to show up. It's the difference between fighting for pennies (Trump) and fighting for whole dollars (Obama). |
1) the Congressional districts hadn't been redrawn yet (the 2018 and 2020 elections, and the Census, will be critical).
2) the outgoing president was Republican (strongest predictor of a party winning the presidency? The other party having the presidency).
3) Obama had a populist appeal too, but more because he is an eloquent orator. Remember his Ebenezer Baptist Church Address? (here: http://www.americanrhetoric.com/speeches/barackobama/baracko...)
4) Clinton came with wayyyy too much baggage. America has plenty of strong young progressives. They need to take the reins.
5) Debbie Wasserman-Schultz calling balls strikes.
6) Russia, with or without collusion.