[hyporthogon]

Gartner/Forrester approach is great but I think a little more useful for the business planning side (the time dimension is more about market value). Similar vein but more on the 'tech worth checking out/playing with/deploying in-prod' side (panel opinion): https://www.thoughtworks.com/radar

[AstralStorm]

Read up the verification of the Forrester approach. It has failed to predict anything important yet. A simple differential model like this is no good.

Likewise gaussian cupola models are often wrong. You might be facing a sigmoid instead. Or a stepwise distribution.

Both of these are used by alleged econometrists and planners who do not know better and hate drawing real histograms of opinions, because that takes actual data collection.

Thoughtworks one is even less descriptive and more limited.

[_pmf_]

> but I think a little more useful for the business planning side

Especially for planning the rollout of their army of consultants, always ready to switch out systems for no perceivable benefit except the hollow promise of modernism.