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by michaldudek 3395 days ago
It baffles me how all these smart people completely don't get Elon or Tesla.

Maybe it's hard to understand for some that money is not the ultimate motivator? I'm pretty sure that Tesla could be a profitable company today if they stopped all investments and just focused on selling amazing Model S (who needs AP2?) (best car ever made in opinion of many reviewers!). But they're a tech company that happens to make cars (among many other things), not a traditional car company. That's why they should be valued at tech company criteria. They're doing what all the tech "unicorns" are doing - burning through cash by investing in stuff that will give them massive advantage in the future. Why profit when you can grow massively? (hello Gigafactory! hello Solar City!)

Sure, I can see how this is not a company to invest in during daily trade. But it's not a company that ever said it's in it for the quick buck. 10 years ago it was failing in delivery of Roadster. 5 years ago it was failing in delivery of Model S and 2 years ago it was failing in Model X. If you ask me, I'd love to fail on the scale Elon and Tesla fail. Unless something really really random happens, Tesla is not going down anytime soon. Sure, M3 is risky, Solar City deal might be iffy, but I think some of the smartest people in the world are running this company, they're not gonna flip it.

I mean, a chat app aims to be valued at $25bn vs a company that delivered almost 200k feats of engineering in the last 10 years and everyone is laughing at their current valuation of $40bn. What is wrong with the world?

5 comments

If you're planning on holding onto the stock long term, the best advice is to just ignore this and ride it out.

The issue is that mass market auto making is hard, it's intensely regulated, and it has a large potential to cost alot of money to build a factory, acquire the parts you need, and handle any liability issues. Their job is to be skeptical and that makes sense as they're lending out billions of dollars to a company that's going to need tens of billions to get everything working.

As a tech company, Tesla has never delivered a product on time. Worse, it's usually 2-3 years late, not the usual 3-6 months delay for software. At this moment, GM beat the Model 3 to market with its cheaper competitor by at least six months and at industry scale.

Now, bear in mind, I'm an early stage Tesla investor. I bought Tesla at $38 and sold them at $150. I felt they were beyond fairly priced at $150 before they unveiled any self-driving tech. So I've been ignoring financial industry naysayers for years.

My take on Tesla is this: this moment is do or die for the company. It's fine to be six months late or even a year late if they launch the Model 3 with full autonomous driving capability at a price affordable to the upper-middle class. But more could be fatal. Several major competitors are nipping at their heels concerning both EVs and autonomous cars, including GM, Nissan, and BMW among others.

The one best thing going for Tesla is their sterling reputation with consumers. Geeks believe that their cars are magic spaceships and are willing to wait unbelievably long times to own one. Their brand reputation is better than Apple. They must deliver quality and not rush production just to meet the Bolt EV in the market.

> Maybe it's hard to understand for some that money is not the ultimate motivator?

Except that's the whole point of the market. Companies have a fiduciary responsibility to their shareholders. The company has to be motivated by money and growth. Maybe they'll pump out dividends. Maybe they'll take over the world first like Amazon and then pump out tons of cash. Either way - it still always boils down to money.

If a company doesn't care about money, they can be taken over. Their stock price can suffer. Going public means you've decided to be scrutinized. For better or worse.

Amazon had its up and down. See where it has gone today, dominating in multiple areas, while barely profitable.
People who work for Goldman aren't that smart - they're just greedy career-diggers who just look for a quick buck. Just google the mountain of lies that was Spinvox.