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by tomjakubowski 3404 days ago
The kind of fraud that "voter ID laws" are supposed to protect against is "voter impersonation". The fear is that Lisa might know where friend Marge votes, show up to Marge's precinct, pretend to be Marge, and illegally cast a ballot as her. In this way, she could cast multiple ballots in the same election.

As far as I can tell, to pull that off at a big enough scale to affect national or even state elections you'd need to know:

* The voter rolls for a county. I think that, in California anyway, the best you can do is random access by looking up an individual's record using their name, phone number, mailing address, etc. I don't know how one would acquire the entire list of registered voter.

* Near perfect information about which voters will neglect to vote on election day.

The reason you'd need to know the second thing is that many attempts at voter impersonation have been foiled because the impersonated person eventually shows up to vote at their precinct — only to be told they've already voted!

You also need some logistics: enough people to make it worthwhile, vans to shuttle them from precinct to precinct, etc. The whole things seems way too complicated for an organization to pull off without somebody discovering it.

It seems likely to me that voter impersonation could only be a successful tactic in a small town or county's local elections, where you wouldn't need large numbers of people to turn the results in your favor.

2 comments

The not-so-hidden secret is that voter id laws would stop one type of fraud - in person voting fraud, or the most logistically challenging and hardest to do. Most old white people rely disproportionately on mail-in voting, oddly enough there are no pushes to restrict access to this method of voting (even though it is the easiest to defraud) - voting fraud legislation tends to focus on the methods that minorities use.
That's not really true. Republicans have also fought against having open access to mail in ballots. In many states you need to have a "justification" in order to get a mail-in ballot. If anyone could get a mail-in ballot it would be good for minorities and the poor as you wouldn't have to actually go to the polls.
Not just red states have this rule. New York, hardly a bastion of conservatism, also restricts absentee voting:

>Qualifications to Vote by Absentee Ballot

>Absent from your county or, if a resident of New York City absent from said city, on Election Day.

>Unable to appear at the polls due to temporary or permanent illness or disability; or because you are the primary care giver of one or more individuals who are ill or physically disabled.

>A patient or inmate in a Veterans' Administration Hospital.

>Detained in jail awaiting Grand Jury action or confined in prison after conviction for an offense other than a felony.

https://www.elections.ny.gov/VotingAbsentee.html

The New York State legislature is often controlled by both parties and it's in the GOP's best interests to do what they can to stifle the vote while they have control.
The voter rolls are provided to the candidates.

Big campaigns also already build statistical models of likely voter behavior (they use it to try to contact people who they think they can influence).

Still not hordes of people out committing felonies on election day.