[paulpauper]

have we reached 'peak car' 'peak operating system' yet or 'peak computer'? I think Facebook is going to be with us for a very long time and will continue to thrive. Yeah, the comments and posts suck sometimes (I don't use it) but hundreds of millions are addicted to it.

[dredmorbius]

We've seen a number of peaks, at least on a temporary basis.

"Peak air travel" by aircraft departures occurred in 2001, and by total passenger miles, I believe hit around 2007. There's some wiggling around that, in that load factors and seat pitches allow for aircraft to carry more passenger miles on average. But the US DOT's 2000 forecasts for aviation fuel were high by a factor of 50% or so for ~2013. (I've not checked the data since.)

"Peak car", by passenger miles driven seems to have hit much of the US also around the 2007-8 financial crisis. But if you look at underlying trends, as early as 1990 or thereabouts ownership and miles driven were softening markedly particularly in the Pacific Northwest.

"Peak Computer", in terms of traditional desktop (and laptop) sales is well behind us. Mid-to-late 2000s IIRC. Several factors at play, including market saturation, a stagnation in computer capabilities (CPU speed, RAM, disk, and a bunch of other factors have more-or-less been in a holding pattern, though energy usage has fallen markedly), and the increased convenience of the Internet in your pocket making mobile devices far more attractive. We may be seeing backlash to that (security, privacy, burnout, etc.). There remains the point that computing devices are fundamentally difficult for much of the population to use.

Social networks can grow quickly, but also crash with devastating speed. Understanding just what it is which makes them attractive ... and unattractive ... is a key point to understanding their strength. Or weakness.

[autokad]

yeah, myspace, friendster, digg

[FabHK]

orkut

[nosuchthing]

Users migrated to Facebook from other popular social networks.. it doesn't take much to gain critical mass

[paulpauper]

Some migrated from Myspace and other networks, but Facebook was able to capture the invaluable older demographic who had never used social networking before and are less inclined to switch. Facebook was able revolutionize communication much in the same way the car did for transportation.

[gaius]

Facebook was able to capture the invaluable older demographic

Yes and no. It captured people while they were 20-somethings and has so far managed to hold onto many of them into their 30s and even 40s via its networking effect. But the last thing the next generation want to use is something that the previous generation used. So it's a blessing and a curse.

[dredmorbius]

Largely by being "The Harvard Network". A point I've long made, and recently discoverd that dana boyd has hammered as well.

Facebook is no longer Harvard.

[mtgx]

Facebook is not an industry. It's a product in an industry.

A similar question would read "Have we reached peak AOL?" or "Have we reached peak Windows?"

[astrodust]

Peak AOL happened a while back, and peak Windows has already happened, it's getting murdered by non-PC devices.

Anything can peak, products and industries alike.