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by Owloid
3404 days ago
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I think that a view not represented enough about our "rational brain" and our "intuitive brain" is that rational thinking can only rarely lead to useful information in a reasonable time. Determining causation using the scientific method is more robust, but is a massive effort that usually can't be carried out by individuals. Perhaps we would benefit from being able to control the extent of our intuition on the decisions we make, but there's a reason why we specialize and only deeply think about specific areas. |
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And the trouble with the scientific method is that it's wedded to ceteris paribus, the "all things equal" assumption. (In philosophy, this is called the manipulationist theory of causality, e.g., [2].) This is the core reason that complex systems present such a problem for scientists---it is, if you will, the real reason economics is such a trainwreck. People want explanations to look like, "A causes B if, when you manipulate A, all other things equal, that drives changes in B." But if a system is fully contingent on itself, then that'll never work out.
That's the value of intuition: it's not that it's fast or feasible or individual, it's that the scientific method runs out of gas in highly-contingent situations. To put it in a computer science perspective, the clasically undecidable problems (the halting problem and the decision problem) will always stand in the way of robust automatic code generation, and yet we write code anyway. We can do that precisely because the formal methods we go on about don't describe how we actually are, and that's always going to make people both smarter and stupider than we seem.
[1] http://colinklein.org/papers/DualTrackWeb.pdf [2] https://plato.stanford.edu/entries/causation-mani/