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by pg314 3406 days ago
> $40,000,000 (Trump's share of his father's fortune) invested in the market in 1974 would be worth $1.22 billion in 2015 (when he announced his campaign).

How did you get that number? Did you include re-invested dividends?

If you start in October 1974 and end in June 2015, you get a return of 9817.096% with dividends reinvested and only 2923.171% without [1]. So starting with $40 million you would end up closer to $4 billion. Admittedly that is after fiddling with the months to maximise the return.

> Compared to Forbes estimate of his net worth at $4.5 billion ...

There is a good chance that the $4.5 billion Forbes estimate is a significant overestimation. There is no downside for Forbes to overestimating his fortune, but a significant one in underestimating: they risk getting sued by Trump. See [2], on how he lost a lawsuit in 2006 when a journalist claimed that he was only worth $250 million. It also contains examples of how Trump inflates his net worth. The fact that he still hasn't released his tax returns and has no plans to do so, also speaks volumes.

> ...and Trump's own estimate of his net worth at $10.0 billion at the same date.

Given his long history of lying his own claim is useless.

[1] https://dqydj.com/sp-500-return-calculator/

[2] http://www.forbes.com/sites/chasewithorn/2016/03/31/how-dona...

1 comments

> How did you get that number? Did you include re-invested dividends?

From the site I linked to above (which incidentally is the site [1] you linked to in your post). It includes re-invested dividends and also taxes, which were significantly higher in the late 70's and early 80's compared to what they are now. The page I linked to goes through their methodology.

You make good points about his net worth, but even if I was to concede that, I believe my main point still stands.

He might not be an astute investor, but even if his entire businesses are only worth hundreds of millions, you can't run a company of that size for so long if you "lack intelligence" - even more so if you're building it back up after losing a billion dollars a few decades earlier.

> From the site I linked to above (which incidentally is the site [1] you linked to in your post). It includes re-invested dividends and also taxes, which were significantly higher in the late 70's and early 80's compared to what they are now. The page I linked to goes through their methodology.

I missed that link. It makes some good points. Of course, if you had $200 million in 1974, and your marginal tax rate was 75%, you would not hold it in person but would shield it in a corporation. I'm sure his tax lawyer would have found some structure that would have brought down his taxes significantly.

> you can't run a company of that size for so long if you "lack intelligence"

He is not a complete moron, but he is far from a brilliant businessman. And he doesn't seem to have many intelligent insights outside of business.

He is good at selling an image that appeals to a lot of Americans, though.

> even more so if you're building it back up after losing a billion dollars a few decades earlier.

How do you lose a billion dollars? Does that take a special kind of intelligence? Or does it maybe indicate that he takes irresponsible risks that sometimes pay off, but sometimes go horribly wrong? Could his relative success be explained by survivorship bias?

> but he is far from a brilliant businessman.

I'm not claiming he is a brilliant businessman. I'm only disputing the assertion that he "lacks intelligence", which is what started this side-thread.

> How do you lose a billion dollars?

Many different ways. For example, Hillary spent over a billion dollars on her losing campaign, but I don't assume that Hillary lacks intelligence because of this.

> Could his relative success be explained by survivorship bias?

It could well be, and again I'm not ascribing any sort of "special intelligence" to Trump, just that I don't agree that he "lacks intelligence".

> Hillary spent

Not her personal wealth

Well, how about this one then: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-01-12/soros-los...

Losing a billion dollars is easier than you think, because even if you're intelligent, sometimes circumstances conspire against you.