[Eridrus]

Some people are just completely risk intolerant, but if you can't convince anyone at your company to take a risk on something that could next them 10X their comp, then it seems more likely that they just don't think your idea will work.

One thing to consider is that you might not want the best of the best; their talents may be better utilised ekeing out small but highly leveraged gains on your cash cow. You may be better off with someone who isn't that great, but who can ask the more experienced devs for help.

Also consider that bonuses are not the only way to motivate people, most other industries manage to motivate people just fine without a huge sums.

Alternatively, if your goal is just to motivate people rather than conserve cash, let them get both; let them take the maximum of last year's bonus, or a cut of the new project; if they manage to make the new project work they do even better, if not the company eats the risk.