[JumpCrisscross]

> You really think a NATO ally can be hit

No, but the odds don't look as daunting as they used to. It's certainly more bargainable than it ever was. In any case, only the Baltics in my last comment are NATO allies. Lots of American interests aren't covered by Article 5.

> I have to respectfully disagree

My point isn't that confrontation is likely. It's that disrespectful disagreement of the status quo is more likely today than before, in part because of what happened in Crimea and Syria, and in part because we have such an unstable domestic situation with clearly-signaled foreign indeterminism.

Your worst-case for an overreaching autocrat today looks less like Saddam Hussein and more like Assad. That encourages dice rolling.

[konstmonst]

What happened in Crimea? What about a referendum? How is it worse than US annexation of Hawai? As a matter of fact, Crimea was part of Russia since it was taken from Crimean Khanate in the 18th century. I also don't have any emphaty for the treatment of Tatar Culture because it was a culture of pillaging their neigbours and economy based on slaves. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crimean_Tatars https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crimean%E2%80%93Nogai_raids_in...

I also think that the sanctions also brought Russia some good in the long run: instead of buying stuff in europe they now have to make it themselves. The one who really lost were european countries:

https://www.euractiv.com/section/agriculture-food/opinion/wh...

I also think even if Putin may be not ideal leader, he handled the situation in the best interests of his country. I also think the fact, that he is an autocratic leader should not be discriminated against. I think Democracy is not for everybody (as US found out in Iraq and Afganistan) and people in Russia still support him, allthough I think Alexei Navalny would a better Candidate.

[PerfectDlite]

> What happened in Crimea? What about a referendum?

Referendum was held _after_ invasion and with numerous violations of international laws.

> How is it worse than US annexation of Hawai?

How's your whataboutism?

> As a matter of fact, Crimea was part of Russia since it was taken from Crimean Khanate in the 18th century.

Russia (as per se) exists only since 1991.

[flukus]

> Referendum was held _after_ invasion and with numerous violations of international laws.

Because they weren't allowed a referendum as part of the Ukraine.

[PerfectDlite]

Does this justify a Russian invasion?

[knz]

> That encourages dice rolling.

I wish more people saw it this way. Many seem to equate the actions of Trump with "shaking things up" and don't realize the potential implications or increased likelihood of conflict due to the ambiguity of the Trump foreign policy.

It's unlikely to impact most Americans or Europeans that are not in the military but good luck if you live in a potential flashpoint.