to clarify: it's not the dam itself that's at risk of failure, but the emergency spillway. while this scenario would be catastrophic, it's far less catastrophic than the entire dam failing
Think about that statement, what does is mean to you that the "emergency spillway failed" ? The ES is the portion of the dam that is slightly lower than the overall height of the dam so that in the event the main spillway was unable to release water fast enough, the water would start spilling here rather than across the dam. If it "fails" then a portion of the dam ceases to exist. That releases water through that hole uncontrollably. At which point losing containment is generally a matter of when not if.
If it fails, it will be a double disaster, many people will lose property, and California will lose some or all of the water in its largest reservoir. The challenge is going to be keeping ahead of it through to the next storm.
The emergency spillway is around 30 feet high, the dam itself is 770 feet high. The amount of water released from a failure of the emergency spillway will be enormous, but still much smaller than the amount of water released by a complete dam failure.
Excellent link, thanks. I found the following comment sobering:
"Countryman: It’s not going to be the (main) embankment failure, but it’s a failure. If it does happen, there’s nothing saying that the ground is going to stay where it is. That force of water will start tearing that hill apart, and it could eat back into the reservoir and drain the reservoir."
> At which point losing containment is generally a matter of when not if.
No, it's not. The local geology is fairly solid rock. The overflowing water will wear down the overlying soil and loose Earth, but should be sustained by the rock formation. It is a risk, certainly, but such a site is chosen because of the suitable foundation.
The issue right now is to see how the spillway fares over the night. If it handles the increased flow, then it should be able to continue to relieve the situation.
To be fair, I think it is a little ethically troubling to refer to the emergency spillway as anything other than that (e.g. auxiliary spillway), but it is designed to function in an emergency, not just fail catastrophically.
I'd love to get a source on this info. I've been looking for info on the geology of the exact area and the dam construction to assess this exact point.
Where did you find the info on the area being solid rock?
That would go a long way to giving an idea as to how bad any increased failure might be.
If it fails, it will be a double disaster, many people will lose property, and California will lose some or all of the water in its largest reservoir. The challenge is going to be keeping ahead of it through to the next storm.