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by acqq
3419 days ago
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> there is no way this warm period is caused by global warming because you can't equate local weather to general climate No. There's no way that some warm or cold period can only be caused by global warming (or that it can disprove it). Since thevformer are extremes at the specific point in time, the later is the trend (averages, compared year-to-year). But some period can be so extreme that it's a big news if it breaks the records compared to all previous measurements. This is the case this time. If it breaks the records in the direction of the trend, it can point to trend getting even stronger. You won't know if the trend actually got stronger until you make new averages, but it is worrying enough. To compare with something you know: you drive every day 1 hour between two places. You know that your speed at some specific point in time never gets under some value, for example, you never had to stop. If you stop somewhere and wait 1 minute, it doesn't mean you won't have chance to speed up and still get on time. The average can still be the same. You'll know when you're there. But if you day to day have to wait, first day 1 minute, the next 2 minutes, after some number of days you can know that you can't think "maybe I'll still be on time" when you break the wait "record" of all previous days. Now, the climate is one level above: it's not even how fast is one car but how fast are all cars everywhere, if we speak about the whole Earth climate. That's why the denier claiming "but I feel I drove this small route here faster" (i.e. "it seems warm in my town now," not even comparing the actual historical measuremens) is not disproving "it's warmer every year on the whole planet." The averages are here: https://tamino.wordpress.com/2017/01/18/global-temperature-t... |
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