[sgt101]

Neither; these are techniques applied on observed data in an obviously dynamic open domain. The data is uncontrolled - so we have no idea if it is representative of the current state of the domain theory - does it cover the distributions properly; we don't know. We know the domain is dynamic in that the world economy moves like around alot and we can't predict these movements, in the sense that most actors did not call the last substantial negative market movement. The domain is open in that new features can appear that drive the value of the variable of interest; for example the availability of property in China, new battery technology, a patent on nuclear fusion.

We do not have techniques that account properly for any of these things.

You may as well draw lines on charts and sell that advice, you'd probably get as good a hearing in any Investment Bank in the world !

oh....

wait...