[RodericDay]

Believing Cambridge Analytica are a bunch of geniuses doesn't only benefit CA, but also to the people that CA defeated. If Trump had a crazy amazing data science team, it means that Clinton and the "Mook Mafia" didn't mess up, they were just outplayed.

I think this whole pro-data story is incorrect. Trump's huge unpopularity right now shows that what happened this election was Clinton messing up her own campaign by religiously following data and not doing basic things like visit Wisconsin. And from the journalism end, the NYT telling readers that Clinton had an 80+% chance of winning, sending a loud and clear message: Stay home if you wish to protest vote.

Even after massive, massive predictive failures, fortune-tellers always manage to give excuses and stick around.

[mrmaximus]

"Trump's huge unpopularity right now shows..." After watching what happened with the election, I don't think it's safe to say Trump is unpopular. Sure the mainstream media and loud social media voices say so, but that looming "silent majority" are still silent. Assessing his popularity among those willing to speak only tells us how popular he is among that group.

[dashundchen]

He lost the popular vote by 3 million votes.

His disapproval rating has eclipsed 50% in record time for a modern president - 8 days. 42 vs 51, approve/disapprove https://www.rt.com/usa/375715-trump-majority-disapproval-8-d...

President Obama had an approval rating twice as large following his inauguration. 84/14

Over 3 million people marched against him just two weeks ago and continue to mobilize.

I can't find any evidence that there is some silent majority supporting him. I'm more inclined to think it's a vocal minority.

[Chris2048]

> He lost the popular vote by 3 million votes

Maybe if it mattered he would have campaigned differently. You can't judge on a metric that isn't the target.

> His disapproval rating

opinion polls?

> I can't find any evidence that there is some silent majority supporting him

He won the election...

[selllikesybok]

What, do we use the Electoral Popularity College now, too?

And Trump actually got amazing positive opinion polling 6 months ago. Now that it's not in his favor, though, ignore?

And you can absolutely win an election with both minority vote share and a lack of popularity.

[Chris2048]

> Now that it's not in his favor, though, ignore?

I've never payed attention to them. They seem to be used more for the political purpose of manipulation, than for producing an innocent, yet unnecessary, prediction of results

> And you can absolutely win an election with both minority vote share and a lack of popularity.

No, you still need a certain amount of voter popularity, with the right distribution; unless you are talking about something else.

[mark_edward]

If they repeat it long enough, they hope to make it true.

He didn't even get more votes.