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by conistonwater 3433 days ago
I don't think I misunderstood your comment. I think in decisions about who to include in unemployment statistics, one should just defer to the professional body in charge of them, unless there is a clear methodological reason not to. There is no particular reason to think any rate is the "real" rate, so while it is true there are multiple rates you could compute, the right thing to do is to pick the standard one. And so anyone who relies on the standard rate (politicians, the Fed) is quite correct to do so. Besides, I'm not sure about this, but I have the feeling the unemployment rate by design isn't meant to track structural changes in the economy (and that's fine!), so if you find a structural change in the economy it doesn't track, you'd still be okay using it.

Edit: In fact, there's this (https://www.bls.gov/cps/cps_htgm.htm#unemployed), so it wouldn't be correct at all to call that 'the "real" unemployment rate'.

> Is there only one official definition of unemployment? There is only one official definition of unemployment—people who are jobless, actively seeking work, and available to take a job, as discussed above. The official unemployment rate for the nation is the number of unemployed as a percentage of the labor force (the sum of the employed and unemployed).

> Some have argued, however, that these unemployment measures are too restricted, and that they do not adequately capture the breadth of labor market problems. For this reason, economists at BLS developed a set of alternative measures of labor underutilization. These measures, expressed as percentages, are published every month in The Employment Situation news release. They range from a very limited measure that includes only those who have been unemployed for 15 weeks or more to a very broad one that includes total unemployed, all people marginally attached to the labor force, and all individuals employed part time for economic reasons. More information about the alternative measures is available on the BLS website.

1 comments

Ok, it's clear you are just trolling at this point. It's really not that difficult. In October of 2009 the unemployment rate was 10.0%, and today it is 4.9%.

Democrats use this stat to say "look how many people the administration has put back to work". Republicans then say "easy there, most of this 'improvement' is from people just giving up, not from all of these people finding work".

Nobody is arguing that the stat is being _recorded_ incorrectly. They are arguing that it is being _used_ incorrectly. It is being used to imply that there has been a massive improvement in the availability of work. The other side says this stat does not actually show an improvement in the availability of work. What is meant by "real unemployment rate" is a stat that would better show the availability of work.

If you don't like that name, then name it whatever you want, but don't pretend that you don't know what people are talking about when they use the term. That is the "dangerous" behavior as far as I am concerned.

I think you are wrong to bring politics into this, especially the left-right divide. The question of whether the unemployment rate is meaningful and useful is a question of economics, and should be settled as such. In fact, it is being used exactly as it is meant to, consistent with its historical use. Like I said in the other comment, since the other measures of underemployment show similar results, that makes it that much more likely that the unemployment rate is reliable.

Also, please don't throw trolling accusations like that.

You started this thread with "And yet there are enough politicians who reject even those statistics, and that seems like a totally different category of stupidity".

Now you say "I think you are wrong to bring politics into this".

This entire subthread was about politicians' use of this statistic. I've mentioned several times now that the disagreement over the statistic is a disagreement over its use by politicians, not over the accuracy of recording the statistic, and you continue to sidestep this. If that's not trolling, I don't know what is.