Hacker News new | ask | show | jobs
by dagw 3433 days ago
If you asked me to predict whether you will roll a six or not, then I will predict that you won't. Is that a bad prediction?
1 comments

It's certainly an incorrect prediction if I roll a six. You didn't simply state the odds and leave it at that, you actually made a prediction. Is it a "bad" prediction? Depends on how you're defining "good" vs. "bad" predictions. If the quality of the prediction is not based on the outcome (i.e. whether the prediction is correct), but is instead based on the odds themselves, then that's a conversation that leads to "bad but correct" predictions.