I think the big question is the Italian elections of 2018. I understand the 5* movment is already pretty much the strongest political party. If they take over the parliament, this may mean the exit of the EU or euro. The Netherlands are probably close too, with elections in March this year, though I understand Wilders is unlikely to have enough seats to take power. Le Pen in France is unlikely to make its break through at the elections this year, but it is not inconcievable in 5 years.
I am of the opinion that the days of the EU are numbered. High unemployment, slow growth, combined with African & Middle-East immigration and Muslim fundamentalism are going to put increasing pressure on traditional social-democrat parties, and with this a general momentum (Brexit, Trump). It may be that the UK might enjoy the status or independant safe heaven when it all happens and investors run to the door and that Brexit turns out to be a blessing in disguise.
Extremely interesting times indeed. Massive political changes will always involve a certain amount of pain, but I believe the writing has been on the wall since 2008 and from political actions taken since.
The problem as I see it, is that the EU is trying to stop the tide. I believe this will fail due to the sheer amount of frustration felt by many of the populations who have not necessarily received or appreciated the globalisation as it has been implemented so far.
Unfortunately for the EU, the only changes that could save itself are antithetical to its hardcore believers and leaders who are in charge. Those who are looking to turn Europe into essentially one country (sounds crazy, but that has been the long and relatively successful game from the beginning), will not budge on a few key issues which are vital to their end game. The David Cameron negotiation was an example of this. If the EU had dropped Freedom of Movement, UK would have almost certainly remained.
Rather, the EU is in a deadlock. It is stuck with a partial integration. The only solution that would save it, i.e. complete the integration and make it a federal government, is now impossible in the current political climate. So it is left being a collection of laws and treaties with no clear leadership and direction of travel, and therefore will keep accumulating grievances without being able to do anything about them.
Yes I think you are right about their current situation.
The federal goal however is never what the people of Europe were sold. This mission was essentially hidden to the people of the countries as it was sold as a trade union. They likely knew that the people of these countries would be almost completely opposed to the United State of Europe and so very slowly and quietly implemented measures to achieve it. With the new calls for an EU Army one step closer to this I think we will see greater resistance to the grander project.
If the federalists give up on their hidden dream of the Europe becoming a single country, they can save the EU.
I am of the opinion that the days of the EU are numbered. High unemployment, slow growth, combined with African & Middle-East immigration and Muslim fundamentalism are going to put increasing pressure on traditional social-democrat parties, and with this a general momentum (Brexit, Trump). It may be that the UK might enjoy the status or independant safe heaven when it all happens and investors run to the door and that Brexit turns out to be a blessing in disguise.