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by scarmig
3440 days ago
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By the standard of that blog, it's possible for temperature to continuously really be rising 100 degrees over a century but for the last year to not be the hottest year on record, if the margin of error is a degree. Hottest year on record isn't a great metric, though. It's all about the trendline. And the trend is for continuous, significant, and dangerous increases in global surface temperatures to be observed over timescales of ~5 years. |
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https://realclimatescience.com/2016/12/100-of-us-warming-is-...
> The NOAA raw data shows no warming over the past century
> When presented with my claims of fraud, NOAA typically tries to arm wave it away with these two complaints. > They use gridded data and I am using un-gridded data. > They “have to” adjust the data because of Time Of Observation Bias and station moves.
> Time of Observation Bias (TOBS) is a real problem, but is very small. TOBS is based on the idea that if you reset a min/max thermometer too close to the afternoon maximum, you will double count warm temperatures (and vice-versa if thermometer is reset in the morning.) Their claim is that during the hot 1930’s most stations reset their thermometers in the afternoon.
> This is easy to test by using only the stations which did not reset their thermometers in the afternoon during the 1930’s. The pattern is almost identical to that of all stations. No warming over the past century. Note that the graph below tends to show too much warming due to morning TOBS.