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by feyn
3435 days ago
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Ooo! I wrote another article talking about single date estimations: https://neilonsoftware.com/2016/07/13/a-far-too-brief-rough-... Yes, a specific date is absolutely what every manager at every level in the organization wants. As long a payroll is issued bi-weekly, and earnings reported quarterly, the desire for a fixed date will be a thing. The issue is, fixes dates when it comes to new software development is a fantasy. If you really, really wanted to talk to experts about hitting dates, I'm thinking that a well-funded initiative done in collaboration with 3 of the 4 branches of the U.S. military and the most respected innovator in aviation technology would be where you would go to find them. I would like to offer up the F-35 Joint Strike/Fighter program as exhibit 'A'. Turns out, despite all that funding and discipline (and threats of what will happen if you miss a deadline), they still can't hit their dates. If they can't, what hope do we have? That's not a rhetorical excuse - that's a real question. Is the answer Agile? Personally, I don't think it is. I think Hollywood has a far better model that anyone else does (pre-production -> production-> post-production). To get new ideas, I study how specific movies are made. One of my favorite case-studies is how they did "Max Max: Fury Road" (lots of storyboards - lots and lots and lots of storyboards). "But hollywood movies are always late/overbudget!!!", yes - which is my point. They know that and have specific adaptions that make this process work decade over decade - and generally a hell of a lot of cash in the process. At a minim, if Agile ain't workin' for everyone, we've got to try to get new ideas from somewhere. My personal choice is Hollywood. |
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Hollywood is broken. https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=H18RUB1cxfI (NSFW)