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by phil 5889 days ago
But imagine a hypothetical world where there was no Android, or where Android was utterly unsuccessful in the market. In that world, Apple would be in a much stronger position against Verizon — in that world, Verizon would need the iPhone.

A strong Apple does Verizon no good, regardless if they’re carrying the iPhone. Verizon’s interests are best served in a market where there are many phone makers — Apple, RIM, HTC, Motorola, Samsung, HP — none of which are in a dominant position.

Those two factors might mean that it's in Apple's best interest to wait, and only deal with Verizon once they are clearly going to win, and can dictate their terms. Whether they should do so hinges on whether or not they can beat the other platforms without access to Verizon's subscribers.
3 comments
noelchurchill 5889 days ago
That's assuming Apple is "going to win". That's not a given, and not even likely. Android is here to stay, it's just a question of if it will catch up with the quality of the iPhone.
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theBobMcCormick 5889 days ago
It seems likely that waiting will only weaken their position for at least 3 reasons:

1) Android is gaining market share (and new features, and more polish, etc) pretty rapidly.

2) MS hasn't even started their "comeback tour" with Windows 7 Phone Edition (or whatever the hell stupid name they settled on). And while it's easy to think you can discount MS (Win Mo sucked right?) they've got great name recognition and it looks like they're willing to pour megabuck into getting back into the mobile game.

3) Blackberry. I don't know why every article about smartphones has to be about Apple vs. Android when RIM still fucking OWNS them both in market share. They've had their thumbs up their collective buts for a while, but if they can get their act together there's no reason they can't remain competitive.

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sshumaker 5889 days ago
"Verizon’s interests are best served in a market where there are many phone makers"...

A simple application of commoditizing your complements. http://www.joelonsoftware.com/articles/StrategyLetterV.html

By that logic, though, Apple should aggressively be putting iPhones on all the major carriers - failure to do so is the probably the main reason there are more installed Android phones out there right now.

But I'm guessing AT&T is giving them an amazing deal, like a revenue share of the user's monthly subscription.

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phil 5889 days ago
That's an interesting point, but don't two year wireless contracts and locked phones pretty much kill the commoditizing effect of being on every carrier?
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