[andyjohnson0]

> and a US-UK trade deal is likely very soon

The earliest that this can happen is 2019, when the UK ceases to be a member of the EU. And since EU rules prohibit members from negotiating their own trade agreements, its probably going to be 2020 or later before a deal is signed.

[gaius]

Not true. Article 50 stipulates the maximum negotiating period, not the minimum. T-May could quite legally declare Article 50, negotiate for a day, then join NAFTA the day after...

[TillE]

There are many many thorny issues to be untangled. It's not as simple as saying "we're leaving"; Britain's membership in the EU is a complex thing that's going to take a lot of work to dissolve. The Article 50 negotiations are about those issues, not a future trade deal.

If you just walk away, you leave a mountain of chaos that would have to be handled in courts.

[gaius]

Sure, but it takes two to tango. The EU can't force the UK to wait two years because the UK can simply walk away. This is a loophole that the writers of Art 50 didn't consider.

[andyjohnson0]

Theoretically true, but extremely unlikely in practice.

As for the UK joining NAFTA: politically impossible.

[toyg]

> for the UK joining NAFTA: politically impossible.

Maybe not Nafta, but TTIP could probably be signed the day the UK leaves. Whether that's a good thing for the UK... eh.

[andyjohnson0]

TTIP is a proposed agreement between the Us and EU. Why would the UK want to ratify it, or even be invited to do so?

[toyg]

Because the UK was a (or even the) driving force behind that attempt, so Ms. May would probably be very happy to sign a quickly-relabelled draft - just s/EU/UK/g and off you go. After all, she will need a quick victory after the breakup, and a TTIP clone would be an easy one. TTIP drafts were always pretty unbalanced towards US interests, so Mr. Trump should be quite happy to sign it as well.

It would be very ironic, in the Morrissette sense: the spectre of TTIP ratification was used by Brexit supporter in the referendum campaign as a reason to leave the EU, and now we could end up being the only country that actually signs it.

[antientropic]

No, the UK cannot unilaterally withdraw before the end of the two year period. An earlier withdrawal is only possible if the UK and the EU both agree.

[gpderetta]

well, technically as long as it is aiming for an hard brexit it can withdraw unilateral whenever it wants. The two year period is a safety blanket to negotiate a better deal while still enjoying the existing rules.

[pmyteh]

According to the text of Article 50, a withdrawing state remains bound by the Treaties (and thus by EU law) until either (1) an exit agreement is made and enters into force; or (2) two years pass after Article 50 is invoked.

So the UK can't 'withdraw unilateral whenever it wants' without creating a giant legal problem as its erstwhile partners attempt to enforce its (still extant) obligations.

[gpderetta]

the UK is sovereign, so it certainly can. The other parties can of course impose sanctions (likely) or go to war (unlikely, hopefully).

[antientropic]

Sure, if the UK is willing to violate its treaty obligations, it can do whatever it wants. But the context of the discussion was the legal situation under Article 50.