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by devilsavocado 3438 days ago
Try out your thought experiment again with a machine that can predict markets with 55% reliability, or 50.1% reliability . This more likely reflects reality.

If someone had a machine that could predict the stock markets with 100% reliability, or even 55% reliability, do you think they would make those predictions known to the public? Or would they start a hedge fund and become one of the wealthiest individuals of all time?

1 comments

As far as I can see, making the information available to the public isn't even a choice. There is no market information you can make available to the public that will make everyone richer. The only people who get richer are the ones who act before it becomes public knowledge. When they are done, asset prices reflect the now public knowledge, and there is no longer a profit to take.