[bayesian_horse]

Exactly. But look at what responses I get when I just point out the possibility Snowden may be lying.

I do recognize the value of the revelations. I just don't accept Snowden's motives at face value.

I'm not saying there is evidence for colusion with Russia prior to the affair, but it's very possible and explains quite a few things.

[crdoconnor]

>Exactly. But look at what responses I get when I just point out the possibility Snowden may be lying.

Given the number of times the intelligence agencies have verifiably lied about this affair alone (many) and the number of times Snowden has verifiably lied (zero), why would you default to believing the known liars?

>and explains quite a few things

There's very little that is unexplained about Snowden.

[bayesian_horse]

So somebody who hasn't been caught lying yet can't possibly lie?

I'm not really believing much of what the NSA or CIA said about him. I don't need to in order to entertain the possibility that Snowden was recruited by a covert operative -before- the affair. It explains how a lowly sysadmin comes up with the courage and the plan to flee half way around the world.

I also don't believe the intended travel itinerary. Wouldn't it be easier to make a vacation in Venezuela, publish his material from a nice cushy hotel and THEN try to get asylum? How did he know China wouldn't detain/deport him? Same with Russia? There is no proof for either version. But enough suspicion to justify holding off on making Snowden a saint of democracy.

[icebraining]

Why would China or Russia deport him or detain him any longer than necessary to strip him and squeeze him a bit? It's not like he's getting any new info, and this way he remains a source of political destabilization for the US.

[bayesian_horse]

Oh, plenty of possible reasons. For example in exchange for some captured spies or hardware. Or some other concessions.

He also may have access to material nobody published yet. Again, it's not about what happened, but what he would have had to fear if he didn't have contact with the Chinese or Russian government before fleeing there.

[crdoconnor]

>So somebody who hasn't been caught lying yet can't possibly lie?

Is, as you are well aware, not what I said.

>I'm not really believing much of what the NSA or CIA said about him.

...except the accusation that he's a Russian spy which you are very attached to.

>I also don't believe the intended travel itinerary. Wouldn't it be easier to make a vacation in Venezuela

If he booked a flight to Venezuela and didn't tell anybody he would have been detained at the airport. If he told somebody he would have been investigated and then game over. This was explained at the time. There were certain places people like him could fly to which wouldn't set off any trip wires. Hong Kong was the only one he could fly to where he wasn't just going to be detained and sent home (I mean, he could ahve gone to the UK too but probably not so wise).

The NSA did not dispute this part of the story.

>How did he know China wouldn't detain/deport him?

He didn't. They probably just seemed like the least likely to detain him of all the places he could fly to unmonitored.

[contras1970]

I'm not saying you beat your wife, but it's very possible and explains quite a few things.

Now seriously, I honestly don't know: what would Snowden being in colusion with Russa prior to the affair explain, or explain better?

[bayesian_horse]

His itinerary, for example. Or the successful application of covert techniques (as opposed to Manning and Assange).

Less of a factor is that in my opinion, the whole endeavor would be more believably be the result of someone being convinced and assured of assistance, maybe even rewarded, than the courage of a singular man.

Please keep in mind, I value the alternatives where Snowden wasn't recruited beforehand as equally plausible. Not that much more plausible, though.