[MichaelGG]

How are you evaluating your confidence in him being a disaster? What're your priors? What criteria do you have for evaluating presidents after their terms? What's your track record in predicting presidential success?

How are you determining what parts of disasters are attributed to the presidency/government vs things only lightly influenced by that? We can agree that hurricanes in one year aren't caused by presidential actions that same year. What about epidemics? Large economic shifts?

I don't mean this as Trump support, just wondering how people get things like "95% confidence" and "disaster". How do they objectively define these things and avoid their biases?