[cobookman]

Is this such a bad thing. Third world countries are becoming westernized giving us a continued growth of our markets even though the population might shrink.

Automation might make manual labor a thing of the past. We might not have enough jobs or natural resources to support a growing population.

Sadly I feel like studies like this don't take into consideration what a ww3 might do on the world's population long term. We are in an unprecedented time of peace which might not last to 2065.

[VLM]

Also revolution. Automation vs labor vs 1848 and all that. Where there is food vs where there are hungry mouths are not obligated to match up as they do now.

It would be interesting to analyze food production capability at various levels of petroleum production and then analyze the probability of those various levels of petroleum production. The days of powering your oxen with some acres of hay are long gone, takes quite a few calories of fossil fuels to generate each calorie of food.

Fossil water is another interesting concept. The east of the USA has more water than we know what to do with, we'll be OK, but the west currently lives off rapidly emptying aquifers, and once those are pumped dry, the population will revert to 1700s to 1800s levels, possibly a little lower. Farmable land minus aquifer irrigated land, will be an interesting math problem for our kids.

The roll forward of progress was heavily advertised and seems orderly. The roll back is going to be completely disorganized and chaotic.

[oblio]

If only one of the richest and most high tech US states was nearer to some huge water source... Unfortunately it is landlocked.

Jokes aside, it won't be easy, it won't be nice, but I'm pretty sure that if it comes to it California could start desalinating the Pacific. It will provide them with something to do for all that cheap solar power that's probably going their way in 20 years or so.

Once they get the ball rolling they could even export that fresh water, if it becomes so scarce...

[maxerickson]

Energy will be cheaper in 10 years than it has ever been in history.

Progress is pretty likely to continue.

[baq]

Can the World Get Richer Forever?

http://physics.ucsd.edu/do-the-math/2015/03/bbc-questions-in...

[maxerickson]

So make a point. That I have optimism for my lifetime doesn't mean I'm blind to there being real actual physical limits.

OP is talking like grim meathook future is coming quick (linking food production to petroleum production). I was answering that.

[marcosdumay]

I dunno¹, but solar will probably make energy much cheaper in the coming decades.

1 - Of course, obviously I do know. The answer is just completely irrelevant to the discussion.

[rokosbasilisk]

wow fascinating read.

If global resources are finite, it would explain the drive to colonize space.

[philipkglass]

Global resources are finite. The resources of the solar system are finite. The visible universe is finite.

Finite is not another word for "meager."

Discussions of physical resource limits would be better if pessimistic prognosticators did not write as if finite-is-meager, and if optimistic prognosticators did not write as if plentiful-is-infinite.

[rokosbasilisk]

finite resources on earth can lead to meagar resources which stop infinite growth is what I took from that paper.

So we'd have to get resources from elsewhere like asteroid mining or space colonization.

[rublev]

>Third world countries are becoming westernized giving us a continued growth of our markets even though the population might shrink.

Which ones are those? The last thing the world needs is even more consumerist culture.

[cobookman]

Off the top of my head, China & India.

I'm sure countries in Latin America, Africa and South-East Asia are also seeing an overall increase to their standard of living over the past 30 years.