[bilbo0s]

The number is 18%.

That's how much of China's GDP is dependent on exports to the US.

A significant paycut as it were, but hardly fatal.

(If they were to stop exporting to us, it would hardly be a fatal blow to us either. There is just not as much there in terms of percentage of GDP as everyone seems to think.)

[seanmcdirmid]

They would have to cut off trade to much of the west as well, otherwise exports would simply be redirected. They could do USA did with Iran, and refuse to trade with anyone hat trades with the USA, but that is a losing proposition for them.

Basically, china cuti off trade with the USA would be a North Korea style action.

[harigov]

Does that include all the value created locally in order to be able to make those exports? Like food that people eat, vehicles that they have to drive, etc., That much drop in economic activity will surely trigger much worse outlook than you are alluding to.

[witty_username]

No, not directly, but indirectly people would be afraid of further radical policy changes by China. Investors would move their money out of China. Or at least, that's what I'd do.