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by seanmcdirmid 3463 days ago
That is a very old number and anyways only comes from consumers who are not consuming but saving for emergency health care, or increasingly unaffordable housing. China desperately needs for its consumers to actually consume to move away from an export oriented economy, which is especially sensitive to trade friction.

So yes, you are talking about China's biggest problem (inability to consume what they produce) that even the Chinese leadership has acknowledged is a huge problem.

Whether china can afford this or not is less relevant than "bang for the buck", china has already built out lots of HSR, some of it very lightly utilized (my own trip from Beijing to a city in south Hunan, the train was mostly empty most of the time). China builds mostly as a stimulus program, because if consumers aren't consuming its one of the only tools they have, but also focuses on flashy projects that they can brag about in articles like this. However, much of this infrastructure is going to be underutilized for decades, while really needed infrastructure, like adequate flooding drainage, doesn't provide enough "face" to be considered instead. So every year, we see pictures of flooded out cities...but at least you can get to them quickly on empty trains!

4 comments

I've always wondered about that oft cited savings rate. How is it even calculated? I worked at a startup trying to generate credit scores for a significant portion of Chinese citizens. Unless our company was completely incompetent, it was pretty ingrained in us that the majority of people in China either don't have access to banking or choose not to bank. Also, it seemed like the vast majority of Chinese citizens lived paycheque to paycheque. So how does one calculate this savings rate figure? Is it just the difference between earnings and expenditures of the entire country?
>That is a very old number and anyways only comes from consumers who are not consuming but saving for emergency health care, or increasingly unaffordable housing.

They're still saving and those savings keep a lid on Chinese inflation which makes projects like this affordable.

>China desperately needs for its consumers to actually consume to move away from an export oriented economy, which is especially sensitive to trade friction.

There's a lot of talk in the CCP about shifting China's economy to becoming more consumer driven but there isn't a lot of appetite to actually do the things which would make that happen - namely some sort of social security/nationalized health insurance system.

The Chinese will thus continue to be terrified of getting old and sick and will and save accordingly, and those savings will no doubt continue to get recycled into projects like this as well as subsidizing state run SMEs with cheap loans.

I agree with this. Savings keep a lid on inflation but also distort money supply and demand, just like the real estate bubble distorts supply and demand for housing. A lot of distortions with temporary fixes to keep things going.

2017 will be very interesting. Can't wait to see what happens in Tuesday.

Is that infrastructure going to still be standing in decades?
Good question. The right aways are important and quite persistent, but the bridges and tack will need to be maintained/rebuilt/upgraded periodically no matter how much they are used.
How is very lightly used? There were 1.1 billion trips made on High Speed Rail in China in 2015.
If you only know the top number but not the bottom one, you can't really compute utilization. Also, spring festival (Chinese new year) means much of the utilization comes "all at once", so the trains are packed for a few weeks each year, but can be much more empty the rest of the year. Anyways, it isn't as simple as laying more tracks between cities.
A solid overview of Chinese HSR:

http://www.railjournal.com/index.php/high-speed/chinese-high...

>In 2013, Chinese high-speed traffic reached 214 billion passenger-km, slightly more traffic than the rest of the world's high-speed networks combined

>the CRC network is already one of the most densely used in the world, with robust growth between 2009 and 2013. Overall passenger traffic grew by 5.5% per year during this period reaching 2.1 billion passengers or 1060 billion passenger-km in 2013. Railfreight grew by 6% per year to 3.6 billion tonnes, or 2633 billion tonne-km in 2013. These are large volumes compared with the size of the network (103,100km in 2013).

http://www.rediff.com/business/report/pix-beijing-shanghai-b...

> Although the railway authority has said that the Beijing- Shanghai high-speed railway was the only profitable high-speed rail in China in the past five years, some believe that other lines in densely-populated and developed regions will likely become profitable soon.

Only Beijing to Shanghai is making a profit ATM (flying is still cheaper on that route, but airport delays are way too bad).

Train networks around the world are usually subsidised and run at a loss, it's hardly unique to China.
China is running at a loss in the billions. In 2018 when the first HSR bonds start coming due, it could be quite a shock.
All I'm hearing is anecdotes, which is fine if there's no data, but when it doesn't jive with what other data says, I'm not really going to trust the anecdotes over what the data says.
So what is your bottom number? Don't trust data from the central government, they aren't known for being very honest with their numbers.