[bjourne]

> Homicide rates are the key number to track. Other crime statistics have big reporting problems. Police can easily not report a crime (especially when there is pressure to make the stats look good), people stop calling police if they think the police won't do anything, etc. But it is very hard to hide a body.

I agree with you, it is true that the homicide rate is the most fair statistic to use. But even that can be manipulated. For example, it is often hard to distinguish between arson and accidental fires. Some types of murder can appear to be suicides at first glance and vice versa. Another twist is disappearances where the body hasn't been found yet. This is why you'll never find an exact number of murders for a specific year, just an estimate.

So different reporting routines or an overworked police force could definitely impact the number of murders reported each year. For example suppose a junkie falls from a balcony and dies, if the police department have spare resources maybe they'll investigate and find out it's a murder, if they don't maybe they'll be happy to close the case as an accident.