While that is true, the guy who said it was unlikely was guilty of the same crime. They both need a "citation needed" response.
I personally remember enough cases like Steven A Cohen and Galleon and the Gerson-Lehrman group[0], that I assign the probability "likely" to that claim, so if someone says "unlikely" I ask him for his reasoning because I might need to update my estimates. I was not trying to say it is wrong, just understand his reasoning.