[jameswilsterman]

How are you calculating the 'risk of any one person being killed by violence' today? To make that claim you need to consider tail risk and black swan events that are possible but have little precedent. What weight are you giving the likelihood of a person dying by nuclear weapon?

[adriand]

Well, for example, "about 15% of people in prestate eras died violently, compared to about 3% of the citizens of the earliest states".

http://www.wsj.com/articles/SB100014240531119041067045765832...

As far as predicting the future goes, I can't.