It's increasing but still really low and definitely possible it's increased use within the population instead of increased adoption. That's also like 2.5/second at its peak and even lower when you drop chain transactions.
I am not sure there is any utility in differentiating between these 2 types of increased use. Either way it's increased use, and either way it's good for Bitcoin.
If we were seeing real growth surely we'd see at least some signals outside of transaction rate. We also have an ongoing block size debate at the moment and I wouldn't put it past some of the proponents(Ver) to be willing to spend money to artificially inflate block sizes.
There are plenty of signals. Price is rising. Activity on Bitcoin forums is growing (r/Bitcoin users grew from 173,000 to 198,000 in a year, bitcointalk.org activity grew from 5900 posts/day to 6700 posts/day in a year, etc). Bitcoin remittance usage is growing (one example: http://bravenewcoin.com/news/bitcoin-remittances-20-percent-...). Bitcoin trading is increasing (especially in China, look at the volume starting in Q4 2015: https://bitcoinwisdom.com/markets/okcoin/btccny). More wallets are created (not a 100% "vanity" metric, but I agree the number of used or active wallets would be a better measure). More venture capital poured into Bitcoin year after year (https://news.bitcoin.com/venture-capital-all-time-high-new-r...). And more.
If a single metric was increasing this wouldn't be a reliable indicator. However all of the above are growing.