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by seanpquig 3464 days ago
Glad to see investors are starting to push back on these ridiculous fees. For decades, the whole hedge fund industry, along with more traditional actively managed funds and financial advisors have been charging fees that can't possibly be warranted by the "value" they add.

I don't doubt that there are strategies and traders who can add skill-based alpha to broad market returns, but the catch is that it is essentially impossible to attribute performance to skill or luck. You may say consistently outperforming the market for 5, 10 or even 20 years is the mark of a great investor, but given the number of funds and players in the space, simple statistics would conclude such outcomes should routinely occur. You see it again and again where some manager has a remarkable run, raises tons of money, and proceeds to encounter mediocre/terrible performance. Some former "genius", do-no-wrong managers have actually lost way more client money than they've ever made because they attract tons of money after a lucky run and then proceed to tank.

The silliest part of the hedge fund industry is seeing all these funds and media retro-fit all kinds of rosy superlatives and sophisticated explanations onto a good year or two run, without ever acknowledging the likely role of luck and randomness.

Warren Buffets essay "The Superinvestors of Grahm-and-Doddsville" perfectly captures so much of this dynamic in a fun hypothetical exercise: http://www.tilsonfunds.com/superinvestors.html

1 comments

To the extent that anyone is able to run a strategy that does beat the market:

a) they probably can't tell the difference between getting lucky and exploiting a niche

b) if they take on more capital their movements will be discovered and the strategy will fall apart

If you're well connected I'm sure you can eventually find a few funds trading on true insider info or novel strategies... but good luck getting in. As soon as the cat is out of the bag the party is over.

For the rest of us: forget it.