Pascal's Wager (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pascal's_Wager) is also about a small but likely downside with a potentially large but unlikely upside. Do you think it's analogous to your 2nd case? If not, how is it different?
The difference is that in Pascal's Wager, the proposition is not a priori falsifiable, and so you cannot assign a reasonable expected cost (ie. taking probability into account) to either decision.
In the case of a 26-year-old making testable assertions about the nature of spacetime (right down to the assertion that space and time are interconnected), there's a known (if potentially large) cost to testing the assertions.
The difference is that in Pascal's Wager, the proposition is not a priori falsifiable, and so you cannot assign a reasonable expected cost (ie. taking probability into account) to either decision.
In the case of a 26-year-old making testable assertions about the nature of spacetime (right down to the assertion that space and time are interconnected), there's a known (if potentially large) cost to testing the assertions.