[Analemma_]

There's no magic probability value at which the Pascal's Mugging argument suddenly "kicks in". It's all about the utilitarian tradeoff of, "given this low probability, am I devoting the right amount of resources to preventing this terrible event? Could they be better spent elsewhere? And is the fretting harmful in and of itself, wiping out the expected gain?" The talk is arguing that the answer is yes to both of those latter questions.