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by EthanHeilman 3476 days ago
Many people get excited and interested in blockchains because they want to radically alter the existing social order and they see blockchains as the most effective path to bring this about.

Thus, when these people make progress they cast it in those terms (radical social change). This becomes a feedback loop which attracts more radicals to the blockchain space and also amplifies the current radicals belief that they really can make a difference. This has both negative and positive effects:

* the negative effects are hype, the desire for ideological purity, expectations which can't be met, and irrational optimism,

* the positive effects are large numbers of smart motivated people who are willing to think big and irrational optimism.

I think spaceX and the startup world in general operates under a similar feedback loop (see "making the world a better place").
1 comments
inimino 3476 days ago
Irrational optimism is a positive effect?
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dlss 3476 days ago
From the perspective of those who aren't irrationally optimistic, I think sometimes.

Self-defeating example: betting on red in roulette is a bad idea. Having your friend bet on red is a better but still bad idea. Having a stranger bet on red, and buy you a drink if he wins... It's free money.

Applied example: starting an electric car company (at least looked like) a bad idea.... trying 1,000 different approaches to a light bulb, especially after 500 failures (at least looked like) a bad idea... etc.

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inimino 3476 days ago
People chasing long shots under a delusion can sometimes be profitable for someone else, but if a movement is built on irrational exuberance surely there's a cost to be paid sooner or later.
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EthanHeilman 3475 days ago
>if a movement is built on irrational exuberance surely there's a cost to be paid sooner or later.

I worry about a Blockchain winter, then again AI has made fantastic progress despite the AI winters[0].

Would fusion as a power generating technology be further along or further behind if it had followed the AI model (progress -> hype -> winter -> progress)?

[0]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AI_winter

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