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by panabee 3478 days ago
what's the dream business model of every VC? a marketplace.

the ideal outcome, though perhaps improbable, is likely to become the ebay of real estate. what they lack is critical mass.

today, they're focused on seeding the marketplace with sellers, that is filling the supply side, which is the natural place to start.

this is a long way of saying that it seems not at all unreasonable to hope they will emulate amazon's AWS strategy of reducing fees as costs fall, not only to deepen their competitive advantage but also to drive them closer to critical mass. but given the high costs and uncontrollable risks, they need to, in the early stages, compromise growth for unit economics and cash flow.

fundamentally, they're using machine learning and automation to remove guesswork and fat from real estate transactions, so this company will be interesting to watch.

what many commentators miss is that OD is selling a service to home owners. it would be helpful if knowledgeable real-estate people focused on (a) estimating how many sellers want this service; (b) if 2% seems reasonable for OD's service; and (c) if this initial market is large enough to jumpstart their marketplace ambitions (assuming this is the end goal).

1 comments

I agree with so much of what you say here (hope for the AWS strategy; the fact that this is a service business, which is what the existing brokerage business is as well of course; using data/ml to remove (massive) fat), but I'm torn about whether their end goal is actually, or even should be a marketplace in the traditional ebay/zillow/trulia sense. There are countless residential marketplaces with good reach already that as long as their pricing model works really well they can focus on supply side exclusively (i.e., buying for 98 cents on the dollar) and then using the existing marketplaces to market. They have to find buyers, of course, but that doesn't mean they need to directly source the buyer. In this model, as the old real estate adage goes, you make your money when you buy the property (that's not meant literally of course).
you could be right. i only started thinking about OD with this thread and have no inside information. that said, a marketplace seems like the ultimate ambition for two reasons.

1. one co-founder is a VC who previously led a marketplace business, paypal. VCs are already conditioned to aim for marketplaces. tasting marketplace success as an operator probably only deepens this reflex. it's harder to eat ground beef when you're used to wagyu.

2. if a marketplace is possible, why not? it creates a larger moat to keep out competitors and assuming they don't abuse monopolistic power, a single marketplace can make pricing fairer (more buyers, more sellers) and more efficient (lower fees). instead of 6%, what if OD enables a world where transaction fees are 0.5% or 1%? the classic disruption playbook (hi, telsa!) is to aim for a dominant market position by starting high, then using technology to steadily reduce prices, expand use cases, and gain market share.

I come from a marketplace background myself and went through two bubbles so you were spot on when you said it was easy for me to say "bets are off in a bubble"--it was easy! And it would have been even easier for me to say marketplace = no brainer. But I just think there are some benefits to leveraging existing demand-side players.

At the risk of agreeing with you too much, though, "why not?" is true, but I think the numbers could be pretty attractive regardless if they ever go/get there.

No inside info here either, btw, though I like to think I get some of the nuances in this market. Sounds like you do as well.

upon further reflection, changed my assessment. think the goal is to become the amazon of real estate, that is the default place for buying, selling, and leasing real estate. details: https://medium.com/@panabee/analyzing-opendoor-unicorn-or-bu...
not sure about leasing but too late to modify the comment re opendoor :)