| > Farming could go on without fertilizer, heavy machinery, gasoline for said machinery, for sure...and yields would go down, indeed very much by "a bit". Definitely "a bit" for some definition of a "a bit". I mean if you want to argue a pre-1900 lifestyle is sustainable without all that then I agree... Look at Gabe Brown and Joel Salatin for how productive farming can be without (or with huge reductions in) fuel use. I think they managed to use 90% less fuel while still producing a lot of food. Necessity is the mother of invention. If you can reduce fuel inputs by 90% and fertilizer completely (and most/all pesticides) then you can get by on very turn of the century amounts of oil; the easy oil that's near to the surface perhaps only a few hundred feet down. Most refineries aren't in the middle of big cities since they take up so much space, so those would keep working. You don't need fancy project managers and reservior engineers when the oil is so close to the surface either. So lacking them wouldn't destroy the economy. > Anyways, you aren't as bad of a "rural pride" fellow I'm not really "rural pride" either, despite your assertion. I just understand what space in the value chain (or society, call it what you want) I occupy. I've always lived in cities or towns. Would things be weird for farmers for a while if all the city dwellers suddenly vanished? Sure! Absolutely. They'd have far fewer buyers for sure. But suggesting that farmers need city dwellers for humans to continue to exist is like thinking that compiler writers need the people that use compilers. Compiler programmers could do their work just fine without everyone writing web apps and the world would keep turning. But if the compiler writers went poof, I assure you that the web app folks would have a much harder time. |
I never suggested farmers need city dwellers to continue to exist; there's a crisp distinction between "continuing to exist" and "continuing to exist in a recognizably-modern state".
The binary thought experiments aren't interesting to me; they usually wind up in degenerate cases that add little useful information. It's much more interesting to look at modest tweaks to the status quo and see how things play out differently.
I also suspected from the way you insist on lumping together "farms" and "rural"--really, from failing to make a useful distinction between the two--which makes it hard to have a productive discussion.
"Rural" is a settlement pattern; an exact definition is tricky to pin down but you can do a decent job of capturing the intuition if you define it as the intersection of "areas with population-density under some threshold" and "areas more than X miles away from a city larger than some minimum size", tailoring the numbers to suit your preference.
"Farming" is an economic activity; although a large percentage of farming is done in areas that'd be "rural" under the above definition, not all of it happens in such areas, and depending on how you calibrate the parameters you can get a surprisingly high amount of farming being done in what'd be at-best "semi-urban" areas.
It's just really hard to have a useful conversation if you're going to keep equating "rural" and "farm".
Anyways, I don't really find the "what if X went poof?" conversation interesting.
What is interesting is if, for example, you saw less and less redistribution and transfer payments at the state level and below, basically (as we've been discussing) leading to each locality having to pay more of its own way.
My conjecture is in this scenario you'd see a simple "contraction": farming proper would become increasingly concentrated in higher-density "halos" around the urban areas for obvious reasons (proximity to market, reduced operating costs vis-a-vis being further out, etc.) and the further out areas would increasingly be the territory of the high-scale industrial operations (who have the scope and economies of scale to net out ahead even after paying more of their infrastructure overhead).
What'd slowly evaporate in this scenario is the horribly in-efficient low-density in-between settlements that currently comprise most of the "rural" areas (by population and by area!).
Finally, don't be too enamored of Salatin (and honestly mentioning him together with Brown is a bit odd b/c most of what they have in common is getting noticed by the popular press).
Salatin just isn't that interesting (results-wise; as a person he's quite entertaining and gives a good interview). Brown's soil results are interesting but it's hard to really evaluate--and harder to replicate!--his other results, b/c he's very cagey with numbers and even more cagey with the kind of detail you'd need to duplicate it exactly.
For Brown's system in particular it's quite likely the productivity per acre is about as high as he claims but the effective total productivity may be much lower than he likes to suggest, due to (a) having to feed a lot of it back to the livestock and also (b) having only smallish areas doing actual production-for-market at any one time.
It's again super impressive for the soil-health aspect but the jury is very much out on how productive the style is, and unless he's opened up a lot lately it's hard to independently verify his implied productivity figures.